Stifel warns Bitcoin could drop to about $38,000 as dollar correlation and Nasdaq ties strengthen
Stifel analysts told CoinDesk that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to roughly $38,000. The target is derived from a long-term upward trendline connecting major BTC bear-market lows since 2010 and projects the current nadir near $38k. Their report highlights a structural shift since 2025: Bitcoin’s relationship with the US dollar and global M2 money supply has flipped, and BTC now tends to fall when the dollar strengthens and liquidity tightens. Stifel also points to a growing correlation between BTC and Nasdaq/growth stocks. Although the Fed cut rates in the final three meetings of 2025, its overall tone remains relatively hawkish; higher borrowing costs for tech firms could tighten financial conditions and add downward pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. The $38k level is presented as a technical, historical-bear-market trendline target rather than an on-chain metric. Implications for traders: elevated downside risk tied to macro liquidity, USD strength and equity-market stress; monitor USD movements, global M2 trends, Nasdaq performance and Fed signals; employ risk management (position sizing, stop-losses, or hedges) if BTC approaches structural support near $38,000. This analysis is for information only and not investment advice.
Bearish
Stifel’s analysis increases bearish expectations for BTC by combining technical and macro arguments. The $38,000 target comes from a long-term trendline of past bear-market lows, implying significant structural support well below current levels. Equally important is the reported shift in Bitcoin’s macro behavior since 2025: BTC now appears to decline when the US dollar strengthens and global liquidity tightens, and it has grown more correlated with Nasdaq and growth stocks. Those factors raise the probability that rate-driven tightening, USD appreciation or equity-market stress could trigger further BTC declines. In the short term, trader reactions (liquidations, stop losses, risk-off flows) could amplify downside volatility if price approaches the cited trendline. Over the medium to long term, persistent tighter financial conditions or prolonged equity weakness could keep pressure on BTC until macro liquidity recovers or correlations re-normalize. Recommended trader actions include monitoring USD strength, global M2, Nasdaq performance and Fed commentary; tightening position sizing; setting stop-loss levels; and considering hedges to guard against a test of the structural support near $38k.