Iran maritime blockade: CENTCOM orders 31 ships back as Apr 30 odds drop

Iran maritime blockade: US CENTCOM ordered 31 vessels to turn back or return to port, reinforcing that the Strait of Hormuz disruption is ongoing at scale. Separate market tracking shows bearish momentum in prediction markets: the odds of 80 ships transiting by April 30 have fallen to around 6%, from about 17% just 24 hours earlier, with only seven days left in the resolution window. CENTCOM’s “turned back” vessel reporting added to negative sentiment. Over the past 24 hours, activity looks thin: roughly $18,346 in face value was reported, but only about $2,238 worth of USDC changed hands. Reported price moves were small (a largest jump of about +2 points), suggesting low liquidity and limited volatility—conditions where a few larger orders can still swing odds. The article also notes the blockade continued even during a temporary ceasefire, pointing to a strategy of economic pressure. Traders should watch for fresh CENTCOM enforcement updates, any IRGC operational changes, and new shipping reports, as these could shift probabilities quickly. In the near term, the Iran maritime blockade headline flow is likely to keep risk premiums elevated for energy and shipping-related exposure proxies; a ceasefire extension plus easing of enforcement could reduce uncertainty and potentially reverse odds—if actions on the water soften.