Strait of Hormuz: UN Rejects Force; US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Slide
The UN Security Council rejected a resolution that sought to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military said the closure will continue indefinitely, signalling no near-term diplomatic breakthrough.
Crypto-linked risk sentiment followed. In US–Iran ceasefire prediction markets, the probability of a ceasefire by April 7 fell to 1.9% (from 8% the prior day and 22% last week). By later horizons, odds remained weak: April 15 at 8.5%, April 30 at 24.5%, and May 31 at 46.5%—with the market effectively pricing a higher chance of US military action by April.
Trading data relevant to crypto participants: the ceasefire market reportedly saw about $661,902 in USDC volume per day. Liquidity looks moderate, with roughly $26,062 needed to move the April 7 contract by 5 points. The largest move was only a 1-point drop, suggesting traders are repositioning cautiously rather than chasing momentum.
Key catalysts to watch are statements from US Secretary of State Rubio and CENTCOM, or any shift in diplomatic language. Overall, the Strait of Hormuz closure stance keeps risk elevated and reduces confidence in rapid de-escalation—an outcome already priced as long-running in markets.
Neutral
The news increases geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and pushes prediction markets toward a lower near-term ceasefire probability. That typically supports a “risk-off” environment, but since USDC is a pegged stablecoin, the direct price impact should be limited. Traders may react via positioning and derivatives/risk sentiment, reflected in elevated USDC volume, yet the event mainly affects expectations for conflict timing rather than changing USDC’s fundamental peg. Net effect on USDC price is therefore neutral.