Strait of Hormuz closure lifts energy prices, but Polymarket traders doubt crude oil peak

The Strait of Hormuz closure has pushed energy prices higher, but Polymarket traders are not pricing in a sustained crisis. In Polymarket’s “Crude Oil All Time High (April 30)” contract, odds are only 1.3% YES (down from 2% the prior day), suggesting traders doubt crude oil will break above the $120/barrel peak within the short timeframe. WTI crude markets are also muted, with “WTI to hit” odds around 0.6% YES. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal (May 15)” contract is more active at roughly 19.5–20% YES, implying some participants see a diplomatic resolution or shipping rerouting stabilizing transit. Trading is relatively light: the largest crude oil move cited was a small spike early in the session, and the order-book depth for the Strait of Hormuz market indicates institutional positioning rather than retail speculation. The article notes that the settlement thesis hinges on continued escalation or a complete, extended closure. Traders say what to watch next includes CENTCOM statements and potential OPEC+ decisions, plus any announcements on shipping resumption or production cuts that could quickly shift odds. Keywords: Strait of Hormuz closure, crude oil, Polymarket, WTI, CENTCOM, OPEC+.