Strategy BTC Premium at 2021 Lows, Credit Issuance Surges
Strategy’s market premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings has slid to levels last seen during the 2021–22 crypto winter, according to TD Cowen data. After months of market pressure and high volatility, the firm’s stock has failed to sustain recovery rallies, narrowing its valuation gap to multi-year lows. Meanwhile, Strategy raised $21 billion year-to-date in 2025 through seven securities—$11.9 bn in common equity, $6.9 bn in preferred equity and $2.0 bn in convertible debt—following $22.6 bn raised in 2024. Products like STRC, STRF, STRE, STRK and STRD fueled its fundraising mix. CEO Michael Saylor also highlighted a surge in weekly Bitcoin-backed credit issuance, exceeding $20 million in the week ending November 21: STRC led with $10.5 m, STRD $3.4 m, STRF $3.0 m and STRK $1.8 m, marking back-to-back increases up to 50.8%. The combination of a weakening BTC premium and booming credit volumes underscores mixed investor sentiment and signals potential market volatility.
Bearish
The deepening decline in Strategy’s BTC premium to 2021 levels signals waning investor confidence similar to the 2021–22 crypto winter. A narrower premium reduces arbitrage opportunities and may weigh on market sentiment. Although surging Bitcoin-backed credit issuance reflects robust demand for leveraged exposure, rapid growth in STR token volumes can amplify volatility. Historically, spikes in credit issuance during bearish cycles—such as late 2021—often precede accelerated drawdowns. In the short term, traders may interpret the compressed premium as a warning sign and reduce risk exposure. Long-term outlook hinges on the performance of credit products and the broader market recovery, but the prevailing premium trend suggests a bearish bias on market stability.