Strategy BTC sales fears drag BTC to $64.5K before FOMC

Published: 2026-06-17 15:05:27 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a $64.5K week-to-date low as traders returned to corporate-sell worries ahead of the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. BTC briefly bounced after hitting the $64,500 area on Bitstamp, but remained capped below the 66K level. The key overhang is Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). QCP Capital said the market fears Strategy may sell more BTC to fund dividend payments, despite extending its liquidity runway after selling 32 BTC in May and following an earlier buyback of $1.5B of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes. QCP expects the “overhang” to continue limiting BTC participation even if broader markets remain optimistic. Attention is also on the Fed and new chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. QCP called it a “difficult opening act,” noting Warsh must balance inflation pressures with the need to cut rates that president Donald Trump is pushing for. CME Group’s FedWatch showed no odds of an FOMC rate cut, while Bitwise research highlighted rising market expectations for a rate hike later this year—typically a headwind for crypto and risk assets. For traders, the near-term setup is a mix of BTC-specific supply anxiety (Strategy) and macro event risk (FOMC). If BTC cannot reclaim and hold the 66K area, downside reactions around the Fed decision remain plausible.

Bearish

The article points to two near-term bearish drivers for BTC: (1) a potential recurring BTC supply overhang from Strategy, and (2) macro uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision where markets are not pricing a cut and are leaning toward possible hikes. Historically, when FOMC expectations shift toward hawkish outcomes or when BTC faces identifiable corporate/structural selling risk, price tends to struggle to follow broader risk-on rallies and often becomes more sensitive to the event headline. Short term: BTC may remain capped below key resistance (around 66K) and could see sharp volatility around the FOMC due to rates probability re-pricing. Strategy’s “runway extension” reduces immediate liquidity stress, but the market is still focused on whether future dividends force additional BTC sales. Long term: if Warsh successfully anchors expectations back toward a dovish path and Strategy’s share issuance/financing plans reduce the need for further BTC sales, the overhang could fade and allow BTC to participate again in macro optimism. Until that confirmation, the balance of risks remains tilted toward downside reactions.