Strategy CEO Says Company Will Hold 650,000 BTC for Up to 40 Years
Strategy CEO Phong Le told CNBC the firm has no plans to sell its roughly 650,000 BTC (about $60.3B) and would only consider selling under extreme conditions—loss of USD liquidity or an inability to trade BTC derivatives. Le said such circumstances are unlikely before 2065 and argued a sale would follow only a prolonged market downturn (he referenced a 40-year horizon). He also noted that a sustained 3-year down cycle causing MicroStrategy’s mNAV to trade below 1x could force sales as early as 2029. Strategy recently raised $1.44B to cover 21 months of dividends and said it will not sell BTC to meet dividend obligations. Le reiterated confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, citing ~45% annual growth over the past five years and forecasting further gains over the next 20 years. Key details: 650,000 BTC holdings; $60.29B valuation; 40-year hold scenario; possible sale triggers include prolonged market downturn, loss of USD liquidity, or inability to trade derivatives; earliest forced sale scenario tied to a 3-year down cycle could occur in 2029; $1.44B raised for USD reserves.
Neutral
The announcement is neutral-to-mildly bullish overall. Strategy’s declaration that it will not sell 650,000 BTC barring extreme scenarios reduces immediate downside selling pressure from one of the largest institutional holders, which is supportive for market stability. The firm also raised $1.44B in USD reserves, lowering short-term liquidation risk to meet dividends. Both points can calm markets and limit sudden supply shocks. However, the admission of specific sale triggers—loss of USD liquidity, inability to trade derivatives, or a prolonged multi-year down cycle—creates a conditional tail risk. The CEO’s 40-year framing is effectively a long-term narrative play that may encourage buy-and-hold investors but has limited relevance to near-term price catalysts. Historical parallels: announcements by major holders (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy prior purchases) that they won’t sell typically reduce short-term volatility; conversely, earlier instances where companies raised capital or issued equity to fund BTC reserves have sometimes signaled dilution risk for equity holders rather than direct BTC supply changes. For traders: short-term impact likely muted—reduced selling pressure and reassurance via USD reserves support stability. Medium-to-long-term, the statement reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative and could be bullish if adoption and macro conditions remain favorable. But conditional sale triggers mean traders should watch liquidity metrics, MicroStrategy’s mNAV levels, derivative market functioning, and any changes to the firm’s dividend funding as potential catalysts for increased selling pressure.