Strategy’s mNAV Risk Sparks Bitcoin Sell-Pressure Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Bitcoin is trading around $65,150, down 0.8% over 24 hours, and the key risk is no longer macro or ETF flows. Instead, traders are watching Strategy (MSTR)’s Q2 earnings on July 31, because the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder can move market structure if its metrics deteriorate. The article highlights that Strategy reported a $14.5B operating loss in Q1 2026, driven mainly by declining BTC prices, while software revenue rose to $124.3M. Accretion metrics have worsened: Bitcoin yield has fallen to 5.8% and Bitcoin per share growth is down to ~8% YoY. Technically, the $60,000–$61,000 zone is described as critical support. A decisive break lower could open the path to the mid-$50,000s. Resistance is layered between $66,000 and $68,000, with higher prior highs above $70,000 as an upside scenario. Scenarios for the near-term range are framed around Strategy’s mNAV: the bull case assumes stabilization above 1.22x and renewed ETF-like demand; the base case expects churn around $60k–$65k while mNAV stays near parity; the bear case centers on Strategy’s mNAV sliding back toward/under the ~0.99x trough from late June. In that scenario, forced BTC selling risk could create genuine structural sell pressure, undermining the “leveraged Bitcoin proxy” model. Keyword focus: Strategy’s mNAV is the driver traders are underwriting (and underpricing) for both short-term price action and longer-term sentiment.