CryptoQuant: Strategy halt Bitcoin buys to ease dividend risk

Published: 2026-06-24 07:38:42 |

CryptoQuant (Julio Moreno) says Strategy, the former MicroStrategy, should temporarily halt Bitcoin purchases to rebuild cash buffers and restore market confidence. In a June 23 report, it argues dividend obligations are rising faster than cash. Key metrics cited: Strategy’s annualized dividend commitments climbed from about $300M at the start of 2026 to roughly $1.2B, mainly tied to STRC perpetual preferred stock. CryptoQuant estimates Strategy needs about $2.8B in cash reserves to cover around 24 months of dividends, while dividend coverage has fallen from 7+ years to about 14 months. Balance-sheet risk is also emphasized. Strategy holds over 840,000 BTC (over 4% of the future BTC supply) and shows roughly $10.6B in aggregate unrealized losses from 2024–2026 purchases. Cash reserves are down 38% year-to-date. Crypto-market signals add pressure: STRC preferred stock trades near $82.50 versus $100 par (about a 17.5% discount), implying elevated credit risk. CryptoQuant warns that continuing Bitcoin buys while obligations stay near $1.2B per year could eventually force Strategy to sell BTC to fund dividends—potentially worsening downside for BTC. Bottom line for traders: the call is not to abandon Bitcoin, but to pause Bitcoin buying, prioritize liquidity, and watch credit pricing around STRC as a leading risk indicator for BTC flows.

Bearish

CryptoQuant frames the issue as cash-flow strain tied to STRC dividends. If Strategy keeps buying Bitcoin without restoring liquidity and dividend coverage, it could face an eventual need to sell BTC to meet payouts. Even if holdings are currently “unrealized” losses, forced selling would convert paper losses into realized losses and can add marginal sell pressure to BTC flows, especially during weak market conditions. Short-term, the market may react through risk repricing around BTC supply/demand expectations and by tracking STRC preferred-stock discounts (~17.5% below par) as a proxy for near-term funding risk. Long-term, the direction depends on whether Strategy can rebuild cash reserves and extend dividend coverage; absent that, the dividend-driven sell-pressure narrative stays bearish for BTC.