Strong US GDP Cuts Fed rate-cut Odds — Bitcoin at Risk of Falling Toward $80k
Bitcoin fell into a tight range on Jan 22 after US GDP data came in stronger than expected, reducing the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported third-quarter GDP growth revised to 4.4% (from 4.3%), with expectations for fourth-quarter growth above 5%. Markets pricing on Polymarket showed the probability of three Fed cuts this year fell 11 percentage points to 27%. Concurrent ETF outflows accelerated: SoSoValue recorded over $708 million in outflows on Wednesday (up from $408 million the prior day), with more than $1.5 billion withdrawn over three days. Gold has simultaneously rallied to record highs, with Goldman Sachs lifting a target to $5,400, suggesting investor rotation into perceived safe havens. Technical indicators are bearish: BTC dropped from a YTD high of $97,790 to around $89,300, moved below the ascending-triangle lower boundary and the 50-day MA, and the RSI fell below 50. Key support to watch is $80,485; key resistances are $100,000 and $103,000. Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz warned BTC will remain under pressure unless it clears those resistance levels. Implications for traders: increased macro-driven downside risk, potential continuation of ETF outflows, and a heightened probability of short-term declines toward the $80k support — traders should monitor Fed rate-cut odds, ETF flow data, gold strength, and on-chain/technical levels for entries or protective stops.
Bearish
The news combines stronger-than-expected US GDP — which lowers the market-implied odds of Fed rate cuts — with sizable ETF outflows and bearish technical signals for BTC. Historically, dovish Fed expectations (rate cuts) have supported risk assets including Bitcoin; the reverse — diminished cut expectations — increases macro-driven selling pressure. The immediate technical picture confirms momentum is to the downside: BTC broke below an ascending-triangle lower boundary, the 50-day moving average, and RSI sits below 50. ETF outflows (over $1.5bn in three days) show real capital rotation away from crypto, and concurrent gold strength indicates a move into safe havens. Together these factors point to higher short-term probability of declines toward the $80,485 support. Longer term, fundamentals (ETFs, institutional adoption) could reassert bullishness if rate-cut expectations return or inflows resume, but until macro expectations and flow dynamics stabilize, downside bias remains. Traders should tighten stops, consider hedges or size reductions, watch Fed communications, monitor ETF flow/whale activity, and use the $80k area as a key support to reassess risk/reward.