Bitcoin Gains as Weak Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Bets

| coindesk.com
Bitcoin rose about 1% to above $86,000 after a weak September US jobs report reduced expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Employers added only 29,000 jobs, below the roughly 84,000 forecast. Unemployment increased to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3%, its weakest level since May 2021. Payroll growth for July and August was also revised down by 60,000 jobs. The data reduced futures-market expectations of an October rate hike from about 66% at the start of the week to 22%. Softer inflation and dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee further supported expectations of a policy pause. Bitcoin later eased towards $85,300 but remained above $86,000 in the latest trading update. QCP Capital said Bitcoin must decisively clear $87,200, with resistance extending towards $87,500, to confirm another upward move. A break above that area could support a move towards $90,000, while rejection may trigger profit-taking. Weekend crypto liquidations were relatively limited at $62.7 million, with short positions accounting for 68%. Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed. DOGE gained more than 3%, HYPE rose nearly 3% to about $93, and ETH and XRP advanced by up to 1%. SOL, BNB and ZEC slipped by less than 1%. Despite the weaker jobs data, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.25%, reflecting heavy bond supply and higher long-term debt risk premiums. Institutional demand remains supportive. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $6.34 billion in the third quarter, including $2.65 billion in September, while Bitcoin gained nearly 43% during the quarter. Traders will watch the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, due Wednesday, as well as ETF flows, Treasury yields and further labor-market data for signals on interest rates, liquidity and Bitcoin’s next direction.
Bullish
The immediate impact is modestly bullish for Bitcoin. A weak labor market, slower wage growth and sharply reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike can lower pressure from interest rates and improve sentiment towards risk assets. The decline in short-position liquidations and strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows also suggest underlying demand. However, the bullish case is not yet conclusive. Bitcoin faces technical resistance between $87,000 and $87,500, and a sustained break above $87,200 is needed to confirm further upside towards $90,000. The elevated 10-year Treasury yield at 5.25% could continue to tighten financial conditions, while profit-taking may follow if resistance holds. In the short term, Fed meeting minutes, Treasury yields and ETF flows are likely to drive volatility. Over the longer term, continued institutional inflows and a more accommodative interest-rate outlook would support Bitcoin, but the market remains sensitive to renewed inflation or stronger economic data.