SUI Weekly Technical Strategy: Downtrend Intact — Key Range $0.8636–$0.9290

SUI remains in a multi-timeframe downtrend after falling more than 40% from its peak. Recent price action shows short-term rebounds (trading roughly $0.89–$0.97 across the two reports) but volume is low and structural bearishness persists. Key technicals: price remains below the 20-period EMA (~$1.10 in the earlier note, weekly resistance near $1.16 in the later), RSI is in the lower range (~33 earlier), and MACD histogram shows a bullish/positive divergence suggesting limited short-term recovery potential. Critical decision zone is $0.8636–$0.9290 — a daily/weekly close above $0.9290 would signal a confirmed short-to-medium-term trend change toward targets in the $1.05–$1.39 area, while failure below $0.8636 and especially the core support at $0.7881 risks deeper losses toward $0.4518. On-chain/market context: SUI is highly correlated with Bitcoin (correlation ~0.85); BTC direction and dominant bearish supertrend constrain sustainable altcoin rallies. Liquidity requirements for a credible breakout are higher than current volume: estimated $400M+ versus current 24h volume around $316M. Trader takeaways: maintain a short/neutral bias while multi-timeframe downtrend holds; use short-term range trades between roughly $0.95–$0.99 or scalps if BTC stabilizes; consider longs only after a confirmed daily/weekly close above $0.9290 (or an intraday close above $0.985–$0.99 as a nearer-term signal) with tight stops. Risk management: small position sizing (spot 2–5%), strict stops (e.g., below $0.9523–$0.8636 depending on time frame), and conservative leverage (max 3% risk exposure, 3–5x only if positioned carefully). This is technical analysis only and not investment advice.