Superintelligence, oil prices and rates could reshape markets

In a Forward Guidance interview, Raoul Pal argues that superintelligence will become the most transformative technology and a global “race” will dominate international priorities and energy demand. He links macro risk to commodity and financial conditions. Pal says rising oil prices and/or higher interest rates could end the current economic cycle sooner than markets expect, with Middle East geopolitics adding a persistent “oil premium.” On energy, he highlights China’s solar dominance, claiming China produced more solar recently than the rest of the world’s existing added stock combined. He also argues that the AI transition toward artificial superintelligence (ASI) will require “planetary-scale” power, intensifying competition for energy and resources. Pal frames the US–China resource contest as ongoing and potentially unending, which could keep feeding geopolitical risk premia across markets. For the business cycle, he expects economic slowdowns rather than classic recessions, pointing to liquidity and stable collateral as key stabilizers. He also notes Japan’s banking system may resume lending after decades, which could change global financial conditions. Crypto-trader takeaway: Pal’s thesis ties superintelligence-driven energy demand and geopolitical risk to rates, liquidity, and risk appetite—factors that often influence BTC/ETH correlation with macro liquidity in risk-on/risk-off rotations.