Taiwan Raises 2026 GDP Forecast to 3.54% as AI Hardware Exports Surge
Taiwan’s government has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.54% (from 2.81%) after a 2025 boom driven by AI-related hardware exports. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics expects 2025 GDP to expand 7.37%, the fastest pace since 2010, supported by a projected 6.32% rise in exports for 2026. October 2025 exports reached a record $61.8 billion, up 49.7% year‑on‑year, with shipments to the U.S. jumping 144.3%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 16.9% sales increase, cited as a major contributor as global tech firms scale data‑centre capacity. The report notes sectoral divergence: strong semiconductor and AI hardware demand contrasts with weakness in textiles, petrochemicals and steel due to oversupply and reduced retail orders. Officials warn of external risks, including potential changes in U.S. trade policy, though semiconductors currently enjoy exemptions. For traders, the update signals stronger semiconductor-sector fundamentals and export momentum that may influence related equities and hardware-focused tech stocks.
Bullish
The GDP upward revision and record export figures — led by semiconductors and AI hardware — point to stronger revenue and order books for Taiwan’s tech exporters, notably TSMC. For crypto traders, the indirect linkage is through increased demand for data‑center infrastructure and cloud services that support blockchain, staking, and on‑chain activity; stronger hardware demand tends to benefit related tech equities and infrastructure projects. Historically, robust semiconductor cycles have coincided with positive risk-on sentiment across tech markets, lifting equities tied to compute and cloud, which can increase liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets. Short term, expect positive sentiment for semiconductor stocks and hardware suppliers, and possible spillover into higher risk assets. Long term, sustained AI-driven capex supports continued demand for GPUs/accelerators and data‑center services, which benefits sectors tied to infrastructure and could underpin greater institutional activity in crypto. Risks: trade policy shifts or a sudden slowdown in global tech spending would reverse effects. Overall impact: modestly bullish for market risk assets and tech-related crypto exposure.