Tariffs and ETF Outflows Weigh on Crypto Market Before PCE
Rising U.S. tariffs and strong economic data have unsettled the crypto market. President Trump confirmed 100% tariffs on imported trucks, furniture and pharmaceuticals effective October 1, stoking uncertainty across assets.
The greenback strengthened following robust GDP and jobless claims figures. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $258 million in outflows and Ethereum ETFs saw $251 million pulled, marking a fourth consecutive day of net ETF outflows. Whale wallets also dumped 147,000 BTC since late August, intensifying selling pressure.
Attention now turns to today’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, where a softer-than-expected 0.2% month-on-month rise could temper the dollar’s rally and stabilize the crypto market. Traders are also monitoring regulatory risks after a Wall Street Journal report highlighted U.S. scrutiny of digital asset treasuries in over 200 firms.
On-chain developments include the Plasma stablecoin blockchain’s mainnet beta launch and XPL token debut with $2 billion circulating and a fully diluted valuation above $12 billion. Liquidity has already been deployed on Aave, Euler and other platforms.
Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices add further volatility. Short-term traders should brace for continued ETF and whale-driven swings, while long-term investors may find buying opportunities if PCE data cools inflation concerns.
Bearish
The news is bearish for the crypto market. The combination of high US tariffs and strong economic data has strengthened the dollar, triggering significant ETF outflows of $509 million from BTC and ETH funds and prompting whales to sell 147,000 BTC. Historically, periods of strong dollar and regulatory uncertainty—such as the 2022 Fed rate hiking cycle—coincided with similar sell-offs and heightened volatility. In the short term, traders may face downward pressure as ETF and whale-driven flows dominate, and global tensions and oil price spikes add to risk-off sentiment. However, a softer-than-expected PCE report could reverse some losses, supporting a recovery. Over the long term, fundamental developments like the Plasma mainnet and stablecoin infrastructure could underpin growth once macro headwinds subside.