Bitcoin May Dip to $85K Around CPI and BoJ Risks Before Possible 2026 Rebound

Published: 2025-12-16 02:39:53 |

Bitcoin has underperformed tech stocks in H2 2025, falling ~15% while the Nasdaq rose ~17%, with BTC slipping below $90,000 after a dovish Fed move. On-chain analysts at Glassnode and derivatives desks highlight concentrated liquidation clusters and heavy resistance near $94k. Key support bands are identified at $85,500–$87,000 and $83,000 — the latter aligning with the average cost basis of U.S. spot BTC ETFs. Near-term macro catalysts — the U.S. Consumer Price Index (Dec 18) and Bank of Japan rate decision (Dec 19) — could drive elevated volatility. A hawkish BoJ or surprise CPI print may trigger risk-off flows that push BTC toward the $85k liquidation cluster; conversely, holding $83k–$87k could attract institutional buying. Analysts note prior BoJ tightening coincided with 20–30% BTC drops, so crowded BoJ-hike positioning raises downside risks. Traders should monitor liquidation clusters, spot-ETF cost bases, the $94k resistance wall, and upcoming CPI/BoJ releases; expect short-term downside risk to $85k–$87k for liquidity grabs, with a constructive accumulation narrative into 2026 if equities hold and macro risks ease.

Bearish

The combined reporting points to heightened short-term downside risk for BTC. Key factors: (1) BTC has already underperformed equities and lost momentum below $90k, creating vulnerability; (2) on-chain data show concentrated liquidation clusters around $85.5k–$87k and heavy resistance at $94k, which increases the likelihood of lower-probability cascade events if pressured; (3) near-term macro catalysts (US CPI on Dec 18 and BoJ decision on Dec 19) can trigger risk-off flows — a hawkish BoJ or surprise CPI print would likely accelerate selling; (4) historical precedents show BoJ tightening has coincided with 20–30% BTC drops, and crowded positioning around a BoJ-hike trade raises liquidation risk. Together these factors suggest a probable short-term retracement toward the $85k area for liquidity. Longer term the narrative is mixed-to-constructive: if $83k–$87k holds and equities stabilize, institutional buying and ETF flows could support accumulation into 2026. For traders: favor risk management — tighten stops, monitor liquidation clusters and ETF average cost baselines, and consider sizing exposure to anticipate volatility rather than directional conviction.