US forces enter Iran by Apr 30: 86% odds jump

Prediction markets now price an 86% chance that US forces enter Iran by April 30, up from 62% a day earlier, as Iraqi militias and Iran reportedly launched missile and drone attacks on US embassies and bases. The April 30 contract jumped 24 percentage points in 24 hours. A related contract for US forces enter Iran by April 30 by December 31 is also higher at 90.5% YES. For traders, liquidity looks active. The April 30 market shows about $5.1M daily USDC traded, with a deep order book (around $84,737 to move prices by ~5 points), suggesting institutional participation. Recent flow includes a roughly 4-point spike, likely tied to a sizable buy. The market narrative is that escalation could move beyond airstrikes toward troop deployment. Traders are watching for confirmation through public statements and any Pentagon announcements on troop movements. Any rhetoric shift or confirmed operations inside Iran would likely push US forces enter Iran by April 30 odds higher—potentially increasing short-term risk volatility across broader markets. Key contract levels: US forces enter Iran by April 30 ~86.5% YES; December 31 ~90.5% YES.