Tesla Valuation Tied to Robotaxi Ambitions as EV Sales Stall

Tesla’s market capitalization, ranging from $370 billion to $1.6 trillion, depends more on investors’ belief in its future robotaxi and humanoid robot plans than on its current EV business. Analysts’ 12-month price targets vary wildly from $115 to $500 per share, reflecting this split. Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research estimates 95% of Tesla’s $322 share price is driven by unproven ambitions, with only $20 attributed to today’s earnings. Elon Musk aims to launch a Model Y robotaxi fleet on June 22 in Austin, but the Full Self-Driving software remains dependent on human oversight and uses cameras alone, drawing safety concerns and a U.S. federal investigation. Meanwhile, rivals gain ground: China’s BYD outsold Tesla in Europe in April, and Waymo’s 1,500 robotaxis already serve 250,000 weekly paid rides across U.S. cities. Tesla’s EV sales are forecast to dip to 1.7 million units in 2025, its auto profit margin could fall to 17%, and reliance on zero-emission credits may face challenges under potential looser U.S. regulations. Despite these headwinds, Tesla trades at a 138 P/E ratio versus single-digit multiples for Ford and GM. Morgan Stanley and other firms value Tesla more like a venture bet, assigning substantial share value to future self-driving and robotaxi prospects. In contrast, Waymo’s $45 billion valuation underscores Tesla’s lofty premium within the tech sector.