Tether CEO: AI-led equity bubble could pressure Bitcoin in 2026, but institutional flows offer stabilisation
Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino said an AI-driven boom and possible bust in U.S. equities is the biggest market risk to Bitcoin in 2026 because BTC remains correlated with broader risk appetite. He warned heavy AI capital spending — data centres, power and GPUs — could reverse sentiment and trigger equity volatility that spills into crypto. Ardoino said recent institutional adoption (pension funds, governments, funds) and growing Bitcoin ETF flows, plus reduced post‑halving miner sell‑pressure, make deep 80%‑style drawdowns less likely. He cited CFTC approvals for spot Bitcoin products and rising tokenisation (via Bitfinex Securities) as liquidity and institutionalisation positives. Ardoino highlighted Tether Gold (XAUT) growth, including a $150m U.S. purchase, praised sustainable corporate Bitcoin treasuries and urged treasury teams to build operating businesses and use pragmatic education and hedging. He also criticised aspects of Europe’s MiCA regulation for stifling innovation and noted mining investment in the Middle East as a driver of further institutionalisation. Traders should monitor equity volatility — especially AI sector flows — as a near‑term BTC risk, while factoring in stronger institutional demand that dampens the likelihood of extreme historical crashes but not of shorter liquidity events or macro shocks.
Neutral
The net effect is neutral for BTC price direction. Negative short-term risk arises from potential spillover of an AI‑led equity correction: large capital reallocation or a sharp equity sell‑off could trigger correlated outflows from risk assets, pressuring BTC. That makes near‑term volatility and downside risk higher, especially during episodes of equity stress or liquidity crunches. Offsetting this, Ardoino highlights increasing institutional demand — pension funds, governments, funds — growing Bitcoin ETF flows, CFTC approvals for spot products, post‑halving reduced miner sell pressure, and tokenisation/liquidity improvements. Those factors provide a stronger, more stable liquidity base that should reduce the probability of extreme historical crashes and support longer‑term demand. For traders: expect elevated short‑term sensitivity of BTC to equity/AI sector moves (bearish risk during equity drawdowns), but medium‑to‑long‑term tail risk is moderated by institutionalisation (bullish structural influence). Therefore, trading tactics should emphasise monitoring equity/AI flows, managing liquidity and hedges for short‑term shocks while positioning for gradual institutional-driven demand.