Tether dominance retest suggests Bitcoin may be bottoming near $60K
Tether (USDT) market dominance has climbed into the 8.50%–9.00% range — a zone that previously coincided with Bitcoin bear-market lows. Historically, peaks in USDT dominance signaled risk-off positioning as traders parked funds in stablecoins, and subsequent rollovers aligned with large Bitcoin rebounds (e.g., November 2022 peak near 8.5%–9% preceded BTC’s 2023–24 rally). In February, BTC’s weekly RSI dipped below 30 while price tested the 200-week simple moving average — a combination that has preceded multi-month rallies in prior cycles. On-chain flows show accumulation: large holders added roughly 40,000 BTC after the price fell below $60,000, Binance increased its SAFU reserve by about $300 million in BTC, and Strategy disclosed a $90 million BTC purchase. Bernstein analysts called the pullback the “weakest” in history and reiterated a $150,000 BTC target by end-2026. The article notes that if USDT dominance does not exceed the 8.50%–9.00% range, the odds of a BTC bottom in coming weeks rise. This is market analysis, not investment advice.
Bullish
The article points to several bullish indicators: Tether (USDT) dominance has entered a historical resistance zone (8.50%–9.00%) that previously coincided with BTC cycle lows, and a rollover from that zone historically preceded large BTC rallies. Technicals add weight: weekly RSI dipping below 30 while price finds support at the 200-week SMA has been a recurring macro-bottom signature that preceded multi-month and multi-fold gains in prior cycles. On-chain behavior supports accumulation — large holders added ~40,000 BTC, Binance increased BTC reserves, and institutional or strategic buyers disclosed sizable purchases. These combined signals increase the probability of a near-term bottom and a subsequent rally. Short-term, traders may see reduced downside if USDT dominance rolls over and accumulation continues, prompting buying opportunities and higher volatility on re-entry. Long-term, if macro support and institutional accumulation persist, the narrative supports a sustained bull trend toward higher targets (Bernstein’s $150k by end-2026 cited). Risks remain: USDT dominance could still rise above the cited zone (extending risk-off), macro shocks or regulatory events could negate the setup, and RSI/SMA patterns are not guaranteed. Overall, probability-weighted impact is bullish but contingent on USDT dominance failing to breach the 8.50%–9.00% threshold and continued on-chain accumulation.