TRON (TRX) Faces Overvaluation Risk But Strong Technical Support Signals 14% Rally Potential

TRON (TRX) is currently showing signs of overvaluation, as indicated by a six-week high in its Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio. This metric suggests the market cap is outpacing on-chain activity, which often precedes a price correction. Despite this caution, technical analysis highlights a strong buyer support zone between $0.268 and $0.276, accounting for nearly $4 billion in accumulated TRX. TRX is trading above the 50-period EMA and within an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing bullish prospects. If TRX decisively breaks above the $0.29 resistance level with strong volume, it could trigger a 14% rally towards $0.3226. Key momentum indicators such as the RSI (above 60) and DMI (with a strong ADX above 40) point to sustained buyer control, though the MACD signals waning bullish momentum and the possibility of a short-term correction. Traders should closely monitor resistance and support levels and remain alert to shifts in market sentiment, as the elevated NVT ratio continues to flag overvaluation risks. While caution is warranted, the robust on-chain accumulation may limit downside and set the stage for a potential breakout.