CoinShares rebuts Hayes — Tether shows $6.55bn reserve surplus, solvency risk limited
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill disputed claims by BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes that Tether (USDT) could become "theoretically insolvent" if Bitcoin and gold plunged. Citing Tether’s Dec. 5 attestation, CoinShares noted roughly $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities — a headline surplus of about $6.55–6.8 billion — and highlighted Tether’s strong year‑to‑date profits (around $10 billion). CoinShares acknowledged exposure to volatile reserve assets (about $9.9 billion in Bitcoin and $12.9 billion in gold) and the risks inherent to stablecoins, but concluded the current data do not show a systemic solvency vulnerability for USDT. The debate follows broader third‑party scrutiny, including an S&P Global downgrade that flagged higher‑risk reserve composition (gold, loans, Bitcoin). For traders: monitor Tether attestations, reserve composition reports, regulatory commentary and on‑chain USDT mint/redemption flows as potential catalysts for short‑term volatility; sustained sharp declines in reserve asset values would increase contagion risk and could pressure USDT’s peg.
Neutral
The news is neutral for USDT price direction in the near term. CoinShares’ rebuttal and Tether’s attestation showing a reported surplus reduce immediate solvency panic, which should dampen abrupt selling pressure on USDT. That supports peg stability and lowers short‑term tail‑risk. However, the presence of volatile reserve assets (notably Bitcoin and gold) and third‑party concerns (S&P downgrade, Hayes’ warning) keep risk premium elevated. Traders may see short‑term volatility around new attestations, regulatory comments or sudden large redemptions, but absent a sharp drop in reserve asset values the likelihood of a sustained de‑pegging event appears limited. Longer term, persistent exposure to risky assets or lack of transparent, frequent attestations could increase systemic risk and investor caution. Therefore the immediate impact is neutral—reducing panic but keeping watchlists active.