DBS: Stable Economy and Tourism Drive Thai Baht Resilience

DBS Group Research finds the Thai baht notably resilient, supported by stable macro fundamentals and strong tourism recovery. Key drivers include a current account surplus (~3.1% of GDP), foreign reserves above $200 billion, controlled inflation within the Bank of Thailand’s 1–3% target, and manageable public debt (~60% of GDP). Tourism reached about 35 million arrivals in 2024 (≈85% of pre-COVID levels) and now contributes roughly 12% of GDP, with average tourist spending up ~15% versus pre-pandemic levels. Export recovery—led by electronics and auto parts—and sizable foreign direct investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor (over $15 billion committed since 2023) further support capital inflows. DBS’s regional comparison shows the baht up ~2.3% year-to-date against the USD, outperforming the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso. The Bank of Thailand’s data-dependent, balanced monetary stance and investment-grade sovereign ratings from major agencies add to stability. Risks flagged include South China Sea geopolitical tensions, climate impacts on agriculture, and long-term demographic pressures from an aging population. Overall, DBS projects the baht will likely remain relatively strong within ASEAN through 2025, backed by tourism, FX reserves, prudent fiscal policy and diversified exports.