Digital Asset Market Clarity Act delayed; passage odds cut to ~30%

The “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” is losing momentum in the US Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has effectively shelved the crypto market structure bill until after the August recess, prioritizing nominations and Russia sanctions. Galaxy Research cut the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law to 30% from 50% a month earlier. Earlier progress remains: the House passed H.R. 3633 with bipartisan support in 2025, and Senate committees advanced the measure in early 2026. A revised draft adds an ethics provision with a sunset clause for 2029. Support from major Wall Street firms such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs is still in place. But key Democrats say the revised package still does not go far enough on ethics enforcement, illicit finance safeguards, and consumer protections. Partisan tension—especially around former President Trump’s digital asset holdings—adds friction. With the Senate calendar crowded, Galaxy expects serious floor action may not happen before September, and passage may be nearly impossible until 2026 without a “last-ditch effort.” For traders, the near-term risk is regulatory uncertainty: SEC vs CFTC jurisdiction, payment stablecoin treatment, and the overall “market structure” framework may remain unsettled. Watch for any Democratic crossover support and any fall floor-timing commitment by Thune; otherwise, traders may need to price in longer “regulatory limbo.”