Tiger Research Sees BTC Doubling to $185,500 in Q1 2026 on Fed Cuts, M2 Growth and CLARITY Bill
Tiger Research published an updated Bitcoin outlook forecasting a bullish target of $185,500 for Q1 2026 — roughly 100% above current levels — driven by an expected Fed easing cycle, continued global M2 money‑supply growth and potential regulatory clarity from the U.S. "CLARITY" bill. The report sets a neutral baseline fair value of $145,000, then applies a +25% macro adjustment (cut from +35%) and 0% fundamental adjustment to reach the revised target. Key updates include: Fed policy is expected to turn dovish after cuts beginning in late 2025; global M2 remains at record highs implying ample liquidity; spot‑BTC ETFs recorded $4.57bn of outflows in Nov–Dec and annual ETF net inflows eased year‑over‑year, though corporate holders (e.g., MicroStrategy, Marathon) continue accumulation. On-chain metrics show a healthy market structure with strong support near $84,000 and short‑term resistance near $98,000 (short‑term holders’ cost). Indicators (MVRV‑Z, NUPL, aSOPR) have moved into fair‑value ranges, reducing odds of panic-driven spikes. Tiger lowered the macro uplift to +25% citing slower institutional inflows, Fed leadership uncertainty and geopolitical risk, but maintains a medium‑to‑long‑term bullish stance: liquidity expansion plus potential regulatory clarity (if the CLARITY bill passes) are the primary upside catalysts. For traders: the report signals significant upside if policy and regulatory catalysts materialize, but warns of elevated near‑term volatility due to ETF outflows and resistance around $98k — trading opportunities may favor measured long exposure on confirmed support and catalyst-driven breakouts. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price forecast, Fed easing, M2 money supply, CLARITY bill, ETF flows.
Bullish
The report is net bullish for BTC because it outlines a clear channel for large upside: Fed easing plus continued M2 expansion and potential U.S. regulatory clarity. These macro and regulatory catalysts historically support risk assets and institutional inflows, which could materially lift demand for BTC. The downgrade of the macro uplift from +35% to +25% and the noted $4.57bn ETF outflows introduce near‑term headwinds — namely slower institutional flows and short‑term resistance around $98k — which raise the probability of elevated volatility and rangebound action before a decisive breakout. Short‑term impact: neutral to mixed — traders should expect higher volatility, possible pullbacks to the $84k support band, and resistance tests near $98k; momentum trades should respect these levels and ETF flow data. Medium‑to‑long‑term impact: bullish — if Fed cuts occur as expected and the CLARITY bill materially improves institutional access (bank custody/staking clarity), liquidity and institutional demand could drive BTC towards the report’s target. Overall, the balance of catalysts vs risks results in an overall bullish price outlook, but with significant short‑term uncertainty.