Tom Lee: Bitcoin Likely to Rally — New All-Time High Possible by January
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee says Bitcoin has not yet hit its peak and expects a new all-time high by January if the Federal Reserve pivots from quantitative tightening (QT). Speaking on CNBC, Lee noted historical precedent: when the Fed paused QT in September 2019, markets rallied ~17% in three weeks. He calls the end or pause of QT a ‘‘tailwind’’ for both Bitcoin and equities, and expects investor positioning, liquidity and momentum to turn in December. Despite a recent drawdown (Bitcoin trading ~ $86,700 and down ~21% month-on-month at the time of reporting), Lee reiterates targets of $100,000 by year-end and an eventual climb to previous ATHs in 2026 and possibly $200,000, citing potential Fed rate cuts and growing institutional demand. Lee is also a significant crypto investor via BitMine, which is a large holder of ETH. Key keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, quantitative tightening, Fed pivot, Tom Lee, $100K target.
Bullish
Tom Lee’s commentary is bullish because it links a macro catalyst — the end or pause of Fed quantitative tightening — to rapid market rallies, citing a 2019 precedent where markets rose ~17% within weeks after QT pause. For traders, that implies higher liquidity, tightened short positions, and momentum flows that can drive swift upside in Bitcoin and correlated risk assets. Short-term impact: heightened volatility with a probable rally if market participants price in a Fed pivot or clearer easing signals; expect rapid bid-driven squeezes and rotation from cash into BTC. Long-term impact: if QT does end and is followed by rate cuts or sustained institutional inflows, this can reinforce a multi-month uptrend and support Lee’s $100K and higher targets. Risks remain: if the Fed maintains tightening or economic data undermines easing expectations, the bullish thesis fails and downside pressure could resume. Comparable past event: September 2019 QT pause and subsequent quick rally; similarly, announcements around Fed policy in 2020–21 drove strong crypto rallies. Traders should watch Fed communications, liquidity metrics, institutional flows, funding rates, and position concentrations to trade the thesis while managing risk with stops given elevated short-term volatility.