TON Tests Critical $1.25 Support as Downtrend Intensifies (Feb 1, 2026)
TON (TON/USDT) is under pressure after a 7% 24‑hour drop, trading around $1.34 and probing a critical multi‑timeframe support zone at $1.25. Volume fell to roughly $112M, indicating selling pressure has intensified but panic selling may be easing. Key technicals: price remains below EMA20 ($1.54), EMA50 and EMA200; Supertrend shows resistance near $1.58; RSI (14) is oversold at 26.7 while MACD momentum is bearish. Short‑term resistance sits at $1.3515 and $1.4010; a decisive break below $1.32–$1.25 would open a larger downside toward the $0.79 target scenario. Conversely, reclaiming $1.35–$1.40 with rising volume and RSI above 40 (plus a MACD crossover) would be required to shift momentum. TON shows high correlation with Bitcoin (~0.85), so BTC weakness amplifies downside risk for TON. Trading outlook: bearish‑dominant; traders should limit sizes, watch $1.25 support, monitor BTC action and volume; consider short‑term reaction buys only on clear RSI/MACD confirmations. This analysis stresses risk management and is not investment advice.
Bearish
The article details a clear technical downtrend for TON: price below key EMAs, Supertrend resistance, bearish MACD, and RSI in oversold territory but without confirming reversal signals. Volume has declined while price fell, indicating distribution rather than a healthy reversal. Key technical support at $1.25 is stressed; a break would accelerate downside toward the lower target ($0.79), giving a risk/reward that favors further declines. High positive correlation with Bitcoin (~0.85) means BTC weakness amplifies TON’s downside. Historically, similar altcoin corrections during BTC sell‑offs produced further drawdowns until BTC stabilized and volume returned. Short‑term rebounds are possible when RSI is deeply oversold, but they require confirmation (RSI >40, MACD crossover, rising volume). Therefore the immediate market impact is bearish: traders should reduce exposure, tighten stops around $1.25, and watch BTC and volume for any shift in directional bias.