TON Pullback Watch: $2.01 Target, $1.5–$1.8 Golden Pocket vs BTC
Toncoin (TON) has rallied sharply, including a May 7 surge to around $2.90 that wiped out nearly $29M in short positions. The move was linked to Telegram replacing the TON Foundation as the network’s largest validator, with demand also said to absorb a $103M token unlock.
Still, the later technical read frames TON as a corrective phase. After the 6 May breakout above $1.95, the higher-timeframe structure leans bullish, but the 4-hour structure stays bearish: $2.36 and $2.16 act as resistance, RSI is back below 50, and OBV is relatively flat.
Key TON pullback levels are highlighted: a likely 50% retracement around $2.01, a deeper dip toward $1.50, and an even lower extension to ~$1.12 if risk sentiment deteriorates. Traders are also watching the “golden pocket” between $1.5 and $1.8. For a bullish turn on TON, the article suggests waiting for 4-hour confirmation, such as a breach of a nearby local high (example: $2.175).
BTC is the main risk variable. If Bitcoin breaks down quickly below $75k, the article warns it could drag TON below $1.5, increasing near-term downside pressure.
Bearish
The fundamental/attention catalyst (Telegram replacing TON Foundation as top validator and absorption of a $103M unlock) helps explain the initial TON spike, but both articles converge on a near-term trading challenge: TON is looking stretched and is now in a corrective setup. On the lower timeframe, resistance levels ($2.36, $2.16) plus RSI slipping below 50 and flat OBV suggest sellers are not fully exhausted, even if the broader structure remains constructive.
For traders, that means upside may require confirmation (e.g., breaking above a local high around $2.175). Until then, the market is more likely to respect pullback targets such as $2.01 and possibly the $1.5–$1.8 golden pocket. The bearish risk accelerant is BTC: a fast drop under $75k could push TON below $1.5, worsening liquidation-driven downside and lowering the odds of immediate recovery.