Toncoin token unlock: $103M supply risk as upgrades dey boost rally
Toncoin (TON) dey rally strong, up almost 19% for 24 hours, as network upgrades make transaction finality like 0.6 seconds and cut fees to about 0.00039 TON. The “Make TON Great Again (MTONGA)” initiative and tighter integration with Telegram dey support renewed user activity.
On-chain, Toncoin don see TVL rise by about $32M since May 4 to around $91M, while DEX volume climb to nearly $42M — levels wey no dey since late 2024. These gains mean better liquidity and more trading participation.
But Toncoin upside fit face test because of one major token unlock wey dey scheduled for May 24. The unlock go release about $103M worth of tokens, increase circulating supply. If buy demand no keep up, e fit put pressure on price downwards.
Recent flow dynamics still matter: before the latest rally, inflows/outflows bin around $7M–$15M. After the rally, activity jump to about $143M–$200M, so markets must sustain demand to absorb the new supply.
Traders suppose to monitor TON flows, TVL/DEX volume trend, and price reaction around the May 24 unlock window.
Bearish
Di message get one tone wey dey like “good news first, possible sell pressure dey near”, so di directa trading mean sey e dey more bearish.
1) Right now na technical plus on-chain benefits: TON transaction finality faster, fees lower, MTONGA dey push performance up; at the same time TVL and DEX volume dey grow. Normally dis one go attract funds short-term and strengthen di trend.
2) But di key na di timing for supply side: For May 24 about USD 103 million TON suppose unlock. Historically, for similar “big unlock + market still dey bullish” events, wetin usually happen be say people enjoy di uptrend first, but as di unlock near or happen, if di new circulating supply no get equal absorption, price fit correct or volatility go increase.
3) Why e fit lean bearish: Di report compare fund flows before and after unlock — after di rebound fund flows don already expand to around USD 143M–200M. If di extra selling wey come with di unlock no match market demand, e go easier to trigger “spike then fall” or heavy intraday swings.
Short-term (before/after unlock) more likely see volatility and pullback; medium/long-term depend on whether di Telegram ecosystem fit drive validators/adoption to sustainably raise real demand, and whether TVL/DEX activity fit hold steady after di unlock shock.