Treasury yields hit 12-month highs as Bitcoin stalls below 200-day SMA
Treasury yields surged to 12-month highs on May 15, pressuring risk assets and leaving Bitcoin stalled near $80,500.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.54% (highest since May 2025) and the 2-year also hit levels not seen since mid-2025. The catalyst was April CPI inflation coming in at 3.8% above expectations, reinforcing “higher for longer” rates.
CME FedWatch data shifted hawkishly: the market is now pricing a 44%+ probability of a Fed rate hike by December 2026, after earlier expectations of multiple cuts in 2026.
Legislation briefly helped. The day before, the Senate Banking Committee approved the “Clarity Act” in a 15-9 vote, which pushed Bitcoin above $82,000. But by Friday, the macro squeeze reversed most gains.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading around $80,592 and remains below its 200-day simple moving average near $82,228, failing to close above it on five consecutive attempts.
Traders should note the key link: Treasury yields increase the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated Treasuries versus non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. One offsetting signal is that tokenized Treasuries TVL reportedly hit a record above $15B, indicating institutional demand for on-chain high-yield government exposure—even as BTC faces valuation pressure.
Bottom line: Treasury yields rising toward ~5% would likely intensify the headwind for Bitcoin in the near term, while sentiment may stay fragile until yields cool and BTC can reclaim key moving averages.
Bearish
The article links Bitcoin weakness directly to rising Treasury yields. When 10Y yields push to fresh 12-month highs (10Y ~4.54%) on hotter inflation (CPI 3.8% above expectations) and markets price a higher probability of a 2026 Fed hike, non-yielding assets typically face valuation compression and outflows into yield-bearing Treasuries.
Similar to prior “higher-for-longer” episodes, BTC can rally on crypto-specific legislative headlines, but macro-driven repricing of rates often dominates intramonth. Here, the Clarity Act vote briefly lifted BTC above $82,000, yet Bitcoin quickly slipped back below its 200-day SMA (~$82,228) after yields reversed the sentiment. That failure to reclaim the 200-day level after multiple attempts is consistent with a bearish regime.
Short term: expect continued downside/sideways pressure while Treasury yields remain elevated and rate expectations stay hawkish.
Long term: if Treasury yields stabilize or fall, BTC could regain momentum as the opportunity cost versus Treasuries eases. The record tokenized Treasuries TVL suggests institutional preference for on-chain yield, which can keep a ceiling on speculative crypto demand unless yields normalize.