Trend Research Sells Most ETH After $747M Loss, Forcing Large Deleveraging
Trend Research, an investment firm affiliated with Liquid Capital, has largely exited a leveraged Ethereum (ETH) position after realizing an estimated $747 million loss, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain. The firm accumulated ETH with leverage on Aave in late 2025 and reported holdings above ~650,000 ETH on January 20. Lookonchain reports Trend Research withdrew about 792,532 ETH from Binance at an average entry price near $3,267 and later redeposited roughly 772,865 ETH back to the exchange at an average price near $2,326, leaving about 21,301 ETH (~$44M) on its books. The sell-off accelerated as ETH plunged — dipping below $1,900 and falling roughly 37% year-to-date (about 55% over four months) — forcing deleveraging to avoid margin calls. On-chain monitors place Trend Research’s liquidation thresholds between $1,430–$1,627 (avg. ~$1,640). Since February 1 the entity has sold 411,075+ ETH, cumulatively offloading about 62% of its peak holdings while repaying roughly $526M in loans. In a recent 10–12 hour window the firm dumped an additional 170k–216k ETH (~$322M), and deposited 235,588 ETH to Binance to service debts, adding to market selling pressure. The unwind contributed to breaches of key EMAs and roughly $2.5B in crypto-wide liquidations; other leveraged whales (e.g., a Hyperunit position) also incurred large losses. Traders should expect heightened short-term volatility and concentrated sell pressure that could push ETH below major supports (analysts cite risk toward sub-$1,600 if $1,725 fails). Key takeaways: large concentrated deleveraging by a whale, material realized losses (~$747M), increased liquidation risk around key ETH support levels, and elevated volatility — all underscoring the need for strict risk management when trading ETH.
Bearish
The news is bearish for ETH. A large, concentrated leveraged position (Trend Research) has been force-sold after heavy losses, producing substantial market selling pressure and triggering broad liquidations (~$2.5B). The firm’s redeposits to Binance to service debt and ongoing offloading (411k+ ETH sold since Feb 1, with recent 170k–216k ETH dumps) increase near-term supply into the market. On-chain liquidation thresholds between $1,430–$1,627 imply further downside risk if prices approach those levels, and analysts warn that failure of the $1,725 support could see ETH test sub-$1,600. In the short term this raises volatility, downside momentum, and liquidation cascades — negative for price. Over the medium term, price impact depends on whether selling is exhausted and market liquidity recovers; if no additional concentrated sellers remain and broader demand resumes, downside pressure could abate. For traders: prioritize position sizing, stop-loss discipline, and monitor on-chain flows and exchange deposits, as concentrated deleveraging events historically have led to rapid downside spikes followed by variable recoveries.