Trump join uranium plan with US-Iran ceasefire, odds don jump to 99.6%

Trump talk wey join Iran "uranium-management" plan to US–Iran ceasefire don quick change how prediction markets price the ceasefire odds. The April 15 contract jump to 99.6% YES from 14% inside about 24 hours, while longer-date contracts remain similarly high (April 30: 99.5%; May 31: 99.6%; June 30: 99.6%). The flat term structure show traders dey expect the ceasefire to hold for the next months. Liquidity signs show strong participation: reported daily USDC volume na about $4.54M, and e reportedly cost about $246.7k to move the April 15 contract by 5 percentage points. One late-session spike of about +24 points line up with the timing of Trump-related news. At ~99.6% YES, markets price near certainty, so upside limited. Big downside risk na sudden repricing if negotiations stall or if the uranium arrangement no move from vague framework to signed deal. Intermediaries like Oman or Qatar remain on the watch list, along with any further statements and posture shifts from key US figures. For crypto traders, higher US–Iran ceasefire odds be risk-sentiment tailwind wey fit reduce geopolitical tail risk and support broader stability—but any reversal fit trigger fast, sentiment-driven moves.