Trump Adviser Predicts No Bitcoin Bear Market for Years
David Bailey, Bitcoin adviser to former President Donald Trump, forecasts that a Bitcoin bear market is years away due to growing institutional interest. He highlights sovereign funds, banks, insurers, and pension plans as major buyers. However, crypto analysts warn that historical four-year cycles and macro headwinds could trigger a downturn. ZX Squared Capital’s CK Zheng notes crypto’s correlation with stocks and sees reduced bear odds after the Fed’s pivot to lower rates. Swyftx’s Pav Hundal acknowledges high momentum but warns fixed-income rotation and potential rate hikes could spark corrections. Merkle Tree Capital’s Ryan McMillin expects a peak by Q2 2026 and a mild bear market thereafter, driven by leverage unwinds or regulatory shocks, though he concedes that financialization may sustain a bull run without a deep bear market. Traders should monitor institutional flows, Fed policy, and leverage levels as they shape the Bitcoin bear market outlook.
Bullish
Categorized as bullish because the long-term institutional accumulation and expectation of continued demand outweigh near-term macro risks. Historically, strong institutional entry, such as ETF launches, has extended crypto bull trends. While analysts note potential for corrections from leverage unwinds or rate hikes, the consensus suggests that the next Bitcoin bear market is unlikely in the near term, supporting upward price pressure. In the short term, traders may see volatility around Fed decisions and market rotations. Over the long term, growing allocations by sovereigns, banks and pension funds provide structural support. Overall, the news bolsters trader confidence, signaling a bull environment.