Trump Urges CFTC Exclusive Control of Prediction Markets as States Tighten Bans

US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that it is “critically important” the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) retains “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, arguing the sector “will thrive” under federal oversight and a “Gold Standard for the States.” The latest push comes as a New York Times investigation alleges the CFTC has actively advanced prediction markets and may have softened enforcement on digital assets through internal staffing changes. At the same time, states are moving the other way. Minnesota’s governor signed a law banning prediction market sites, and the administration is reportedly suing to assert CFTC authority over Minnesota’s decision. Supporters of state control argue many prediction markets operate like gambling and should be regulated like casinos or lotteries, while Trump and CFTC allies frame prediction markets as legitimate markets that should be overseen federally. For crypto traders, the key near-term risk is the regulatory tug-of-war over prediction markets—federal control versus state bans—because it can shift venue availability, liquidity, and sentiment around related crypto/derivatives activity. However, outcomes will still depend on court decisions, leaving near-term uncertainty.