Trump pressure on crypto policy and rising institutional adoption point to new bitcoin bull run, says Clear Street
Clear Street analyst Owen Lau says recent developments — rising bitcoin prices, U.S. policy momentum, and growing institutional integration — could mark the end of the latest crypto drawdown and the start of a new bull phase. Bitcoin rose about 8% in 24 hours to just above $73,000 after a roughly 44% market drawdown from Oct. 10 to Feb. 28. Key catalysts cited include President Donald Trump’s intervention increasing the odds the CLARITY Act clears Congress by summer, Kraken’s banking arm receiving a Federal Reserve master account (giving crypto firms direct Fed payment system access), and Morgan Stanley adding Coinbase Custody as a co-custodian in a spot bitcoin ETF filing alongside BNY Mellon. Lau also noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reinforcing blockchain’s role as an alternative payment rail. Together, these factors point to expanding institutional participation and deeper integration of crypto into the U.S. financial system, which Clear Street views as supporting a bullish outlook for bitcoin and broader crypto markets.
Bullish
The article outlines multiple concrete, bullish catalysts for crypto markets. Short-term price action already reflects this: bitcoin spiked ~8% to above $73k. Policy progress (Trump pushing the CLARITY Act) increases the probability of clearer regulatory frameworks, which historically supports institutional flows. Infrastructure moves — Kraken obtaining a Fed master account — are structural, reducing settlement and custody friction and enabling broader institutional use. Morgan Stanley naming Coinbase Custody as co-custodian in an ETF filing is direct evidence of growing institutional participation and product development. Geopolitical tensions adding demand for blockchain as an alternative payments rail provide an additional, demand-side tailwind. Together these signals resemble prior regime shifts (e.g., ETF approvals and regulatory clarity in past cycles) that preceded sustained inflows and multi-month bullish trends. Expect near-term volatility: quick upside runs and pullbacks as traders rotate and news is priced in. Medium to long term, if policy moves progress and institutional custody/clearing infrastructure scales, this supports higher institutional allocations and a durable bullish structural market. Key risks that could temper the bullish case include stalled legislation, regulatory setbacks, macro shocks, or a reversal in ETF/ custody approvals.