Trump push to control Fed dey fuel market risk premium
President Trump recent efforts to change Federal Reserve board and influence regional Fed presidents don make market add risk premium for possible loss of Fed independence. For August 2025, Trump try to fire Governor Cook and show say e go secure majority for him nominees on FOMC. This kind direct political pressure on Fed na change from how dem usually dey keep am no politics. To measure this kind big risk, traders dey track how five-year inflation swaps and oil prices no dey follow same trend. Normally, when oil price dey go up, inflation expectations go high. But for 2025, inflation swaps rise while oil price drop. This unusual disconnection mean market dey price in worry say inflation no go steady and Fed policy go dey affected. Analysts dey warn say if important connections break, yawa fit follow like for 2022 when gold separate from real yields. Crypto traders suppose watch these big macro signs well well. If Federal Reserve independence fall, e fit affect interest rates, dollar power, and big risk assets, including digital currencies, for next one year.
Bearish
Di tori beta for crypto and broad market because e mean say political intervention for Federal Reserve dey rise and inflation expectations fit no steady again. Traders don dey price risk premium already, as dem see say five-year inflation swaps and oil prices don dey waka separate. Historically, when dis kain difference show, e mean say period wey volatility go high and risk assets go dey under pressure dey come. Di attempt to fire Governor Cook and moves to control regional Fed appointments break di independence wey central banks don get since 1951 Treasury–Fed Accord. Similar things wey happen before like political pressure for rate hikes in the 1970s and gold–yield decoupling in 2022 cause market wahala. As uncertainty about Fed policy increase, interest rates, dollar strength, and liquidity fit no dey easy to predict again. Crypto traders wey dey sensitive to macro volatility and risk-off environment fit face selling pressure and more volatility short term. Long term, steady inflation fear and shaky policy fit make people fear to put money for digital assets until central bank independence and policy clarity return.