Trump-India Trade Deal—India to Halt Russian Oil; Brent Tests $66 Support
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement with India that reportedly reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and includes commitments by India to stop buying Russian oil and to purchase $500 billion in U.S. energy and technology products over time. The announcement followed a phone call between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and coincides with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s three-day U.S. visit for meetings on critical minerals. India has not officially confirmed the deal.
Market impact: Brent crude slipped more than 2% in 24 hours and is testing the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel near the $66 support level. Technical indicators (RSI falling below its SMA and a contracting MACD toward its signal line) signal bearish momentum; a break below $66 could target $63.545, while a rebound could retest $69.395 and possibly $71.42. Traders should watch geopolitical headlines for confirmation of the India-Russia import change and oil technical levels for short-term opportunities. Keywords: India U.S. trade deal, Russian oil ban, Brent crude, oil price support, $66 support, MACD, RSI.
Bearish
The announcement (if confirmed) that India will stop buying Russian oil and commit to large U.S. energy purchases is a major geopolitical supply-demand shift. Markets reacted immediately: Brent fell over 2% and is testing key technical support at $66. Short-term technical indicators (RSI below SMA; MACD contracting) point to weakening bullish momentum and raise the probability of a move toward $63.545 if $66 is lost. For traders this creates bearish tactical setups (shorts on breakdown, protective stops on longs) and higher volatility driven by headline risk as markets seek confirmation from Indian authorities.
In past episodes—e.g., major sanction-driven shifts or announced embargoes—oil markets often sell off initially on re-routing expectations or demand concerns and then re-assess based on timing and enforceability. If the policy is later confirmed and broadly implemented, the longer-term effect could be mixed: redirected flows might tighten supply in some regions (bullish) while increased U.S. exports could offset that (neutral-to-bearish), depending on logistics and ramp-up time. For crypto markets, the primary channel would be risk sentiment: weaker oil and increased geopolitical uncertainty can reduce risk appetite, often correlating with short-term crypto weakness. Traders should monitor official confirmations, oil inventories, and price action around the $66 level to adapt positions.