Ceasefire for Iran extended reach April 30 as chance drop to 16.5%

Di ceasefire for Iran extend reach April 30, but traders dey doubt say e go end properly by that time. For the Iran ceasefire prediction market, YES outcome drop to 16.5% (from 32% the day before). Price moves show optimism dey fade. YES shares mean say person fit collect about $1 if the Iran ceasefire officially end by April 30—around ~6x return from ~16.5 cents—but the contract sharply drop inside 24 hours. That move mean traders no dey expect diplomatic breakthrough inside the remaining ~9 days. Liquidity dey moderate, dem report daily activity around $213,788 face value and about $68,607 in USDC change hand. A move of about $4,074 match roughly 5-point odds swing, meaning big orders fit quickly reprice market. The biggest jump (+5 points) seem happen just after the extension headlines, then e reverse as reports say Iran no too ready to engage, wey pass hopes for de-escalation. Key context for Iran ceasefire traders: the extension dey framed as temporary de-escalation, and Iran reportedly no dey interested for US proposals. Watch for intermediary moves (like Oman or Qatar), any announcement of direct/indirect talks, or softer rhetoric from Trump/Rubio or Oman’s Sultan. If formal end through the ceasefire look hard, geopolitical risk premia fit remain and keep crypto risk volatility high.