Trump remarks slash US-Iran peace deal odds and Hormuz blockade odds
US-Iran peace deal odds fell sharply after Trump urged a Washington Post journalist to leave Pakistan as talks stalled. In US-Iran prediction markets, the April 30, 2026 US-Iran peace deal odds dropped to 3.8% (from 10% the prior day), with only ~6 days left and the contract nearing a flatline. May 31 rose to 32.5% and June 30 to 47.5%, but both are still down versus earlier levels.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade contract also weakened: May 31 odds slipped to 56.5% from 72% over 24 hours. Liquidity remains active, with about $854,504 in USDC flowing across peace-deal markets in the last 24 hours, suggesting traders are repositioning, not exiting.
For traders, the trend in US-Iran peace deal odds is bearish: if there is no fresh diplomatic catalyst—such as another Trump statement (e.g., a Truth Social post) about a new meeting, or a surprise mediator announcement—the April 30 outcome risks expiring near zero. Any new messaging could quickly reprice the curve again.
Bearish
Both articles agree that US-Iran peace deal odds are being repriced lower after new Trump-linked headlines, with the April 30 contract approaching near-zero given limited time. The later update adds clearer, sharper downside levels (April 30 down to 3.8%) and shows broader risk pricing: both the peace-deal curve (April→June) and the Strait of Hormuz blockade odds weaken at the same time. While USDC liquidity remains steady, suggesting active trading rather than illiquidity, the direction of price action is consistently toward reduced confidence in a near-term diplomatic breakthrough—making the setup unfavorable for any narrative that relies on a timely deal.