US Strikes Iran Nuclear Sites Drive Crypto Market Volatility
The US military conducted bunker-busting strikes on Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities using GBU-57 bombs dropped from a B-2 stealth bomber. Damage assessments are pending. Polymarket on-chain predictions now assign a 2% chance of a full US–Iran war and a 38% probability of a new nuclear deal. Heightened US-Iran tensions knocked 1.7% off the global crypto market cap in 24 hours, bringing it down to $3.14 trillion. The CMC Fear & Greed Index slipped to a two-month low of 40. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1% to $102,400 and Ethereum (ETH) dropped 7% to $2,260. On-chain recession bets for 2025 rose from 23% to 30% in mid-June. Ongoing geopolitical risk and steady Fed rates suggest further short-term volatility for crypto traders.
Bearish
The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites have elevated geopolitical risk, leading to immediate sell-offs in Bitcoin and Ethereum and a drop in the global crypto market cap. On-chain data show rising recession bets, and the Fear & Greed Index is at a two-month low, all signaling cautious sentiment. Short-term market behavior is likely to remain negative as traders hedge against further geopolitical escalation. Over the longer term, a successful diplomatic resolution or new nuclear deal could stabilize prices, but current indicators point to continued downward pressure on crypto assets.