Fed Meeting, Treasury Bills & Tariffs Test Crypto Market
In the closing days of July, the crypto market faces three major US macro-policy events. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 29–30, where dovish dissents and dot-plot shifts could hint at a September rate cut. Traders will watch Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks. On July 30, the Treasury’s Q3 borrowing plan will lean on short-dated bills, potentially draining stablecoin liquidity. Trade policy uncertainty persists: reciprocal tariffs kick in August 1 unless renegotiated, and the Supreme Court hears a case on presidential tariff powers on July 31. These developments may test crypto market liquidity and heighten volatility. Technically, Ethereum (ETH) braces at the key $3,800 resistance with support around $3,605–$3,400, while Solana (SOL) tests $189 after peaking near $203 and risks dropping toward $177. Total crypto market capitalization stands at $3.81 trillion.
Neutral
Mixed macro drivers and technical levels suggest a neutral stance. The FOMC meeting could deliver dovish signals but maintain rates, while Treasury’s increased short-term bill issuance may drain stablecoin liquidity, and tariffs pose inflation risks. These factors heighten volatility but lack a clear bullish or bearish catalyst. Technically, Ethereum faces resistance at $3,800 and support at $3,605–$3,400, while Solana tests $189 support. Traders should expect choppy price action rather than a decisive trend.