Trump keeps Russia oil waiver active, EU seeks sanctions as Ukraine hits exports

Trump’s administration declined the EU’s request to sanction Russia’s oil and kept a short-term license active for Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of April 17. The waiver runs until May 16, replacing an earlier 30-day window that expired April 11. It does not cover deals linked to Iran, Cuba, or North Korea. Key figures include European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Sefcovic said U.S. officials tied the Russia oil relief to “lower-income” countries that rely on imported oil. Bessent similarly argued the extension follows requests for supply stability during the IMF/World Bank spring meetings, amid shipping risks after the Strait of Hormuz was largely disrupted during the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Ukraine says the policy has not created an easy revenue boost for Moscow. It reported that long-range strikes on Russian oil sites cost Russia at least $2.3bn in March oil revenue. Ukraine cited shipping and flow data indicating Russia’s oil transhipments fell by about 300,000 barrels per day in March, with refined products down by about 200,000 barrels per day. Russian export levels were also described as the lowest since mid-2024, with Reuters alleging weaker exports forced crude output cuts of roughly 300,000–400,000 barrels per day in April. Overall, the Russia oil waiver supports some continued supply at sea, but battlefield disruption and export declines suggest tighter revenue and continued price volatility risk. For traders, this is a macro/energy catalyst that may influence risk appetite and inflation expectations through oil.