Next Week Macro Outlook: Trump Tariff Uncertainty, US‑Iran Tensions, Nvidia Earnings in Focus
Key macro events next week include renewed uncertainty over former President Trump’s tariff proposals, rising signs of potential US military action against Iran, and a high‑profile earnings report from Nvidia — the world’s largest company — scheduled for Wednesday (US time). Several Federal Reserve officials will speak throughout the week (including Waller, Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Cook, Barkin and Musalem), offering potential guidance on policy. Economic data to watch: weekly US initial jobless claims (Thursday) and January PPI (Friday). Traders should expect news‑driven volatility as headlines around tariffs, geopolitical risk, and Nvidia’s results may dominate market flows.
Neutral
The report ties together three headline risks — tariff policy uncertainty from Trump, rising US‑Iran tensions, and Nvidia’s earnings — alongside scheduled Fed commentary and US data releases. For crypto markets, this combination is likely to increase headline‑driven volatility rather than provide a clear directional catalyst. Geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty can spur safe‑haven flows (sometimes supportive for BTC as an uncorrelated asset), while major tech earnings — particularly Nvidia, which influences risk appetite via AI/tech sentiment — can swing risk assets broadly. Historically, similar clusters of geopolitical news plus major tech earnings produced short‑term spikes in volatility and intermittent flight to safety, but not sustained directional moves for crypto unless the geopolitical event escalates into a major market disruption. Fed speeches and inflation data add macro sensitivity: hawkish cues could dampen risk assets, while dovish signals may lift them. Overall, expect short‑term choppiness and headline‑driven trading opportunities; longer‑term direction will depend on whether tariffs or military action materially affect global growth or whether Nvidia’s results reshape tech sector sentiment.