TRUMP token down 95% from ATH — short-term bounce possible but bearish outlook
Official Trump (TRUMP), a Solana-based memecoin, has plunged about 95.5% from its $73.43 all-time high set before Donald Trump’s January 20, 2025 inauguration and was trading near $3.32 after a 42.5% drawdown since January 14, 2026. The token’s decline has been amplified by a 24.9% Bitcoin correction in three weeks and negative sentiment tied to a Congressional probe into Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI). On-chain indicators show a bearish market structure on the daily chart: OBV made fresh lows, and the daily RSI has hovered around 20, indicating extreme oversold conditions. Key technical levels: an imbalance (supply) zone at $3.57–$4.09, resistance retests at $4.40 and $4.72 that could precede further downside, and a potential upside target near $5.19 only if Bitcoin rallies past $74k. Traders are advised to wait for rejections at local resistance before shorting bounces; a test below $3.02 may push TRUMP to new lows and continue the year-long downtrend. Disclaimer: this is analysis, not financial advice.
Bearish
The article highlights a dominant bearish technical structure for TRUMP: OBV falling to new lows and a daily RSI around 20 signal severe selling pressure and extreme oversold conditions. Fundamental negatives — a near-25% Bitcoin correction within weeks and a Congressional probe into World Liberty Financial linked to the token’s backers — add to risk-off sentiment. Short-term relief rallies are possible into the $3.57–$4.09 supply zone or up to $4.40–$4.72, but these are likely to be sold into absent sustained buying. Historical patterns for memecoins show amplified volatility on broad-market bounces but tend to resume downtrends when macro and project-specific news remain negative. Scenario implications: short-term — high volatility with occasional bounces that are probable sell opportunities; medium-to-long-term — continued downside risk with potential for new lows below $3.02 unless Bitcoin posts a decisive rally above ~$74k and WLFI concerns are resolved. Traders should prefer wait-for-rejection setups at resistance or manage position sizing tightly due to elevated tail risk.