Trump Signals Ukraine Peace Deal, Crypto and Risk Markets Rally
The war between Russia and Ukraine has weighed on global risk assets since 2022. Rising oil prices fueled inflation, derailing central banks from cutting interest rates. On Monday, former President Donald Trump announced that Ukraine has accepted a 28-point peace plan drafted by the United States. Peace negotiators Steve Witkoff will meet President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, while Dan Driscoll will handle talks with Ukrainian officials. Trump said a final Ukraine peace deal is near.
A successful Ukraine peace deal could ease oil price pressure, stabilize inflation, and encourage the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts. Risk assets like stocks and crypto markets may benefit. Crypto markets, which struggled through 2022’s rate-hike cycle, could see renewed inflows as macro conditions improve. Traders will watch upcoming Ukraine peace talks closely for confirmation.
Bullish
A credible Ukraine peace deal would reduce geopolitical risk and ease oil supply constraints, leading to lower energy prices and cooling inflation. This environment typically prompts central banks to consider rate cuts, which has historically driven risk-on behavior in equities and crypto markets. Traders can anticipate renewed capital flows into cryptocurrencies as macro pressures ease, boosting liquidity and fueling short-term rallies. In the longer term, reduced volatility and stable monetary policy could support sustained growth in digital assets. Past periods of geopolitical détente, such as improved US–China trade talk phases, have coincided with bullish crypto performance.