$13B in Token Unlocks to Impact Crypto: Volatility Expected for AI, Meme Coins, and Layer 2 Sectors in H2 2024

Published: 2025-06-06 05:59:58 |

By the end of Q2 2025, approximately $13 billion worth of cryptocurrency tokens will be unlocked, with significant events concentrated over the next six months. Key sectors affected include artificial intelligence (AI), meme coins, and Layer 2 protocols, with October (AI and DePIN projects) and July (meme coins) being pivotal months. The largest single unlock will be Worldcoin (WLD) in October at $1.29 billion, while TRUMP will see a $2.03 billion unlock in July, making up 84.1% of its circulating supply. AI tokens lead sector-wise releases at $3.42 billion, followed by meme coins at $2.8 billion and Layer 2 tokens at $1.27 billion. Liquid staking and restaking platforms, notably ENA and ETHFI, will also undergo significant unlocks. Smaller sectors like SocialFi and Gaming, featuring tokens such as CHEEL and CONX, will have high unlock-to-circulating supply ratios, amplifying their price risk. Historic patterns show that major unlock events can result in increased volatility and downward price pressure, especially where sector unlocks are dense. Traders should prepare for heightened risk and short-term price swings, particularly in tokens with substantial new supply or high unlock-to-supply ratios. Monitoring these calendar-based unlock events will be crucial for managing exposure and anticipating sector-wide impacts.

Bearish

The large-scale token unlocks scheduled over the next six months, spanning AI, meme coins, Layer 2, and other sectors, are likely to exert downward pressure on token prices due to sudden increases in circulating supply. Past unlock events have led to significant short-term volatility, with some tokens experiencing immediate price drops post-unlock. Given the concentrated schedule of these unlocks, especially for major tokens like WLD and TRUMP, traders should expect elevated volatility and a generally bearish impact on affected tokens in the short term. The risk is further heightened in sectors and tokens where unlock ratios are high relative to the circulating supply. Market participants should remain cautious, hedge positions, and closely monitor unlock calendars for potential liquidity crunches or rapid market corrections.