TSX rallies to 63 all‑time highs in 2025, closes year up 29%
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 2025 up 29%, logging 63 all‑time highs — the index’s second‑best annual performance since 2000. The late‑year rally followed a turbulent spring marked by heavy U.S. tariffs and political tension; easing tariffs and a leadership change (Mark Carney becoming prime minister) helped calm markets. From an April low the TSX rose more than 40%, driven primarily by miners, financials and technology. The materials subindex doubled on gains in gold, silver, copper and palladium; precious metals hit fresh records as traders sought safe havens. The financials sector jumped about 40%, helped by better‑than‑expected earnings from Canada’s big banks, lower interest rates and improved loan books. The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (with further cuts expected), which boosted non‑income assets and supported the rally. Concerns remain: stretched bank valuations (P/E around 15 versus 9.7 in 2022), weak oil fundamentals despite energy stock gains, and geopolitical and tariff risks that could re‑emerge. Analysts say the TSX may still attract global capital in 2026 but warn against extrapolating 2025’s gains without caution.
Neutral
The news is neutral for crypto markets. It signals stronger risk appetite as global equity markets — particularly resource and financial stocks — rallied on rate cuts and easing geopolitical/tariff pressures. Higher risk appetite can be mildly bullish for crypto short‑term because investors shift into risk assets; Fed easing historically supports speculative assets. However, the report is Canada‑equity specific and highlights cautionary points (stretched bank valuations, weak oil fundamentals, geopolitical risk) that could trigger risk‑off episodes. There are no direct crypto mentions, no regulatory changes affecting digital assets, nor material capital flows explicitly into crypto. Therefore the net effect is neutral: potential short‑term upside from improved risk sentiment, balanced by macro and geopolitical risks that could reverse gains. Traders should watch US/Canada policy shifts, Fed guidance, precious‑metals flows (as a proxy for risk‑off demand), and any sudden re‑escalation of tariffs — these factors historically influence crypto volatility alongside equities.