Ukraine blocks Polymarket as unlicensed online gambling platform
Ukraine has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket after classifying the decentralized prediction market as unlicensed gambling under Resolution No. 695 (10 Dec 2025). Regulators cited legal and reputational risks, especially markets tied to Russia’s invasion. The decision adds polymarket.com to Ukraine’s public registry of blocked resources and follows an earlier PlayCity finding; ISPs must restrict access, carry out inspections and report compliance, with legal penalties for noncompliance. Polymarket, founded in 2020 and built on Polygon using USDC for settlements, is valued at about $8 billion and reportedly had over $100 million in Ukraine-related betting volume by end-2025. The move is part of broader global scrutiny of crypto prediction markets — similar actions have been taken or proposed in Romania, France, Belgium, Thailand and parts of the US — and follows tightening rules around political/event contracts and insider-trading concerns. Ukrainian users will need licensed alternatives or may attempt circumvention via VPNs. For traders: expect increased regulatory risk pricing for prediction-market platforms and tokens tied to their infrastructure, potential user migration to licensed competitors, and possible short-term volume disruption on platforms serving Ukrainian users.
Bearish
The Ukraine block increases regulatory risk for Polymarket and similar prediction-market platforms, which is likely to weigh negatively on their market valuation and trading activity in the short to medium term. Short-term effects: restricted access for Ukrainian users will reduce on-platform liquidity and volume, and public listings of blocked domains amplify negative sentiment among traders and counterparties. That can lead to immediate sell pressure on tokens tied to the platform or its underlying chain where exposure is perceived. Medium-term effects: repeated national bans and growing global scrutiny (including proposals in the US and actions in several EU and Asian jurisdictions) raise compliance costs and may prompt platforms to delist certain contract types or geofence users, reducing addressable market and revenue prospects. Long-term effects depend on regulatory responses and business model adaptation; platforms that secure licenses or implement stronger KYC/geo controls could recover usage and value, while purely permissionless offerings may face permanent de-risking by institutional participants. For traders: anticipate heightened volatility, potential downward repricing of assets tied to prediction markets and infrastructure (including associated stablecoin usage on such venues), and migration-driven volume shifts to licensed competitors. Overall impact on the mentioned platform is bearish.