Drone attacks for inside Russia reduce di chances for prediction market say make ceasefire happen for 2026

Ukraine don escalate drone strikes deep inside Russia, including attacks wey reach Moscow and other far regions. Reports talk say 51 drones hit Russia capital from May 2–May 5, plus strikes near Kirishi refinery outside St. Petersburg and one defense plant for Cheboksary, and dem say the reach dey extend toward the Ural Mountains. How Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin go respond fit affect any change for talk expectations. For the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prediction market, the contract for “ceasefire by May 31, 2026” drop to 4% from 6% inside 24 hours. Similar decline show for “ceasefire by end of 2026” market, which dey reinforce growing skepticism say near-term diplomatic breakthrough likely no too possible. For crypto traders, this repricing of the ceasefire prediction market na direct read-through to higher geopolitical tail risk. When conflict intensity or strike tempo dey worsen, markets often demand more hedging and de-risking short-term; the long-term effect go depend whether diplomacy fit offset the escalation.