UNI Faces 15% Correction Risk as Long Liquidations Build
Uniswap (UNI) traded near $9.11 on September 25 after reaching an intraweek high of about $10.95. The rally stalled below the key $11.51 Fibonacci resistance, while UNI’s weekly RSI rose to roughly 73, indicating overbought momentum.
UNI could retreat toward the 200-week EMA near $7.83, representing a potential correction of about 15% from recent levels. If that support fails, the 100-week EMA around $6.91 becomes the next downside target. Derivatives data also shows approximately $5.16 million in leveraged long positions concentrated near $8.87, with an estimated $10.35 million in cumulative liquidations potentially exposed if UNI falls toward that level.
The liquidation cluster could accelerate selling and increase short-term volatility. However, UNI’s longer-term structure remains improved after breaking above a descending resistance trendline. Defending the $8.87 liquidity zone and $7.83 support could allow UNI to retest $11.50. A decisive weekly close above $11.51 would weaken the bearish correction scenario.
Bearish
The immediate trading bias is bearish because UNI has been rejected below major Fibonacci resistance, its weekly RSI is overbought at about 73, and leveraged long positions are concentrated below the current price. A move toward $8.87 could trigger forced selling, potentially accelerating a decline toward the 200-week EMA near $7.83. If that level breaks, $6.91 becomes the next major support.
This setup resembles previous crypto rallies in which overbought momentum and crowded long positioning led to liquidation cascades and sharp short-term pullbacks. Such moves can be amplified when traders use high leverage, even if the underlying market structure remains constructive. In the short term, volatility and downside pressure are therefore more likely than a sustained advance.
The longer-term outlook is less negative. UNI remains above important weekly moving averages and has broken a long-term descending trendline. A successful defense of $7.83 could create a higher low and support another attempt at $11.50. Conversely, a decisive weekly close above $11.51 would invalidate much of the correction thesis and could attract fresh buyers. Until then, traders may favor defensive positioning, lower leverage, and close monitoring of liquidation levels.